Infrastructure finance, regulatory strategy and land use

Mandate. Retained by a project financier to evaluate a regional transit operator's financing request, including regulatory compliance, site control, and operating assumptions.

Analysis. Established that the land-use approval submitted to support the financing request had expired under its stated validity period, that the municipal certificate showed the proposed use was not permitted, and that the property was subject to three reservations for future public taking. Tested the model under three battery-performance assumptions and showed that the proposed fleet could not meet the regulator's service requirements even under the most favorable energy-consumption assumption. Identified an internal contradiction between the cash-flow model's assumptions about revenue receipts and regulatory compliance.

Outcome. The financier declined to proceed.

Mandate. Retained after contract award by a transit operator to analyze its existing operating and financial model and lead due diligence responses to a government-owned development bank and a prospective equity investor. The design-build-finance-operate-maintain (DBFOM) contract covered a bus depot, fleet acquisition, and transit service.

Analysis. Analyzed the existing model and designed four sensitivity cases using the contracting authority's baseline revenue estimate. Disclosed a discrepancy between energy consumption measured in route tests and the manufacturer's warranted consumption figure without reconciling it, because the contract award decision had relied on the model containing that discrepancy. Prepared regulatory briefs explaining how the applicable requirements affected the operator's financial model.

Outcome. Both financing partners made financing offers.

Mandate. Retained by a concessionaire to quantify the financial, technical, and administrative exposure of the operator and its financier if service startup were delayed, and to present and defend the analysis before the regulator.

Analysis. Built and evaluated two 12-month scenarios in which part or all of the fleet remained out of service. Assessed fleet lease payments that would remain due during the delay, preventive maintenance requirements, vehicle storage costs, charging infrastructure maintenance, and other continuing costs. Recommended early debt restructuring negotiations with the fleet supplier and coordinated maintenance procedures to preserve vehicle condition during storage.

Outcome. The regulator issued an interpretation allowing the full government-backed monthly fleet payments to begin when partial service started, rather than prorating payments based on the number of buses in service.

Mandate. Retained by an industry group to evaluate whether a bus replacement subsidy program's selection criteria accounted for mandatory vehicle retirement ages in the city.

Analysis. Analyzed the age distribution of the city's bus fleet using official vehicle registration data and compared the funding round's selection results with mandatory vehicle retirement requirements. Calculated the funding needed for an additional round of bus replacements to meet those requirements. Prepared a legal brief outlining the regional government's statutory authority to prioritize the city's buses in an additional funding round.

Outcome. Local transit operators and the regional government are using the analysis of mandatory retirement requirements to seek additional national government funding.

Mandate. Retained by a prospective bidder for a transit contract to determine whether it could build the required infrastructure on sites under consideration for acquisition.

Analysis. Reviewed municipal certificates documenting applicable zoning requirements, property title records, and relevant case law to establish that the zoning rules did not permit the proposed facility. For two additional parcels, identified environmental protection and flood hazard restrictions that prohibited the proposed use. Prepared a memorandum combining legal and technical analysis to establish that pursuing the available administrative remedies would take longer than the construction schedule allowed.

Outcome. The findings enabled the client to withdraw from negotiations to acquire the sites without penalty and redirect its search toward a site where zoning permitted the proposed facility.